# Table 22: Out-of-Sample Calibration Tests

*Following Lunsford & West (2024) framework*

## Panel A: Random Walk Horse Race (Long Horizons)

| Horizon | N Pairs | RMSE Demo | RMSE RW | RMSE Mean | Rel RMSE (Demo/RW) | DM stat | DM p |
|---------|---------|-----------|---------|-----------|-------------------|---------|------|
| 10yr | 532 | 3.700 | 3.678 | 3.251 | 1.006 | 0.112 | 0.910 |
| 25yr | 192 | 6.677 | 6.576 | 6.471 | 1.015 | 1.061 | 0.289 |

## Panel B: PIT Calibration

| Horizon | N | KS stat | KS p | Cov 50% | Cov 80% | Cov 90% | Cov 95% |
|---------|---|---------|------|---------|---------|---------|---------|
| 10yr | 532 | 0.619 | 0.000 | 11.1% | 25.0% | 35.0% | 47.0% |
| 25yr | 192 | 0.920 | 0.000 | 0.0% | 1.6% | 4.2% | 7.8% |

## Panel C: Expanding-Window 1-Year-Ahead

| Metric | Value |
|--------|-------|
| RMSE Demographic Model | 3.160 |
| RMSE Random Walk | 1.726 |
| RMSE Unconditional Mean | 3.353 |
| Relative RMSE (Demo/RW) | 1.831 |
| Diebold-Mariano stat | 10.876 |
| Diebold-Mariano p | 0.000 |
| N predictions | 606 |

*Panel A: Cross-sectional demographic model estimated at origin year, applied to target-year demographics.*
*Panel B: PIT values should be uniform(0,1) if forecast distribution is well-calibrated. KS p > 0.05 = well-calibrated.*
*Panel C: Model estimated on all data up to year t, predicts year t+1. Controls: Z₁-Z₃, GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance.*